Dubnov\u00fd pokles inflace analytiky p\u0159ekvapil. To je titulek z dne\u0161n\u00edho tisku. Ponechme stranou, zda je nam\u00edst\u011b pl\u00e1cat se do stehen za hodnotu 12.7 procenta, proto\u017ee i tak je to vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnota, ne\u017e byla za v\u0161ech p\u0159edchoz\u00edch vl\u00e1d za posledn\u00edch 105 let.<\/p>\n
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Zastavme se ale u onoho titulku. P\u0159ekvapil onen pokles analytiky? No, jak kter\u00e9. Pokles inflace se toti\u017e dal p\u0159edv\u00eddat velmi snadno, dokonce pr\u00e1v\u011b zejm\u00e9na v dubnu, kdy skon\u010dily kvart\u00e1ln\u00ed kontrakty a term\u00ednovan\u00e9 smlouvy. Tento pokles toti\u017e paradoxn\u011b v\u016fbec nen\u00ed dobrou zpr\u00e1vou. Nen\u00ed zp\u016fsoben ani zm\u011bnou politiky na\u0161\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky, a u\u017e v\u016fbec ne vl\u00e1dn\u00edmi \u00fasporami, kter\u00e1 naopak zadlu\u017euje n\u00e1\u0161 st\u00e1t nejrychlej\u0161\u00edm tempem v cel\u00e9 jeho historii. A bude tak \u010dinit je\u0161t\u011b nejm\u00e9n\u011b do konce leto\u0161n\u00edho roku.<\/p>\n
Hlavn\u00edm d\u016fvodem sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho m\u00edrn\u00e9ho poklesu inflace je nouze. Lidem doch\u00e1zej\u00ed pen\u00edze a utr\u00e1cej\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b. Sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o tom i rekordn\u00ed propady maloobchodn\u00edch tr\u017eeb z posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. Obchodn\u00edk\u016fm tak nezb\u00fdv\u00e1 ne\u017e ceny tla\u010dit dol\u016f a\u017e ke hranici rentability, jen aby v\u016fbec n\u011bco prodali. To tedy nen\u00ed zrovna dobr\u00e1 p\u0159\u00ed\u010dina poklesu inflace. Poklesy tr\u017eeb nutn\u011b brzy povedou ke zpomalen\u00ed produkce, krach\u016fm a r\u016fstu nezam\u011bstnanosti. A to m\u00e1me oslavovat?<\/p>\n
Tak ode dne\u0161ka mohou do USA i neo\u010dkovan\u00ed. Mo\u017en\u00e1 n\u011bkoho p\u0159ekvap\u00ed, \u017ee takov\u00e1to tvrd\u00e1 restrikce platila a\u017e do nyn\u011bj\u0161ka. Medic\u00ednsk\u00e9 \u010di epidemiologick\u00e9 d\u016fvody pro ni nebyly obhajiteln\u00e9 u\u017e dlouho, pokud kdy v\u016fbec byly. Trv\u00e1n\u00ed na t\u00e9to podm\u00ednce m\u011blo jedin\u00fd d\u016fvod: politick\u00fd. Neustoupit ani krok v obhajob\u011b lockdown\u016f a restrikc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 byly sporn\u00e9 od samotn\u00e9ho za\u010d\u00e1tku. Ale nemylme se. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty rozhodn\u011b nejsou v tvrdosti \u201eprotikoronavirov\u00fdch\u201c opat\u0159en\u00ed nijak ojedin\u011bl\u00e9.<\/p>\n
Naprosto p\u0159est\u0159elen\u00e9 reakce na epidemii p\u0159edv\u00e1d\u011bly i mnoh\u00e9 jin\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, v\u010detn\u011b na\u0161eho. Nep\u0159i\u0161el u\u017e \u010das na n\u011bjak\u00e9 shrnut\u00ed? Bilanci? Zhodnocen\u00ed? Kter\u00e9 kroky byly opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u00e9? Kter\u00e9 byly nespr\u00e1vn\u00e9, ale v dob\u011b informa\u010dn\u00ed nouze snad omluviteln\u00e9? A kter\u00e9 zgruntu vylhan\u00e9, zmanipulovan\u00e9 a tla\u010den\u00e9 z\u00e1jmov\u00fdmi skupinami? A ve kter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech byla nasazov\u00e1na ps\u00ed hlava v\u0161em, kdo o opat\u0159en\u00edch cht\u011bli diskutovat? Nev\u011b\u0159me, \u017ee takovou poctivou bilanci ud\u011bl\u00e1 st\u00e1t. Jak\u00fdkoli. To je \u00fakol pro odbornou i \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed ve\u0159ejnost. Nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 \u0159\u00edci: je to za n\u00e1mi, zapome\u0148me. Dramatick\u00e9 a \u010dasto pr\u00e1vn\u00edmu \u0159\u00e1du odporuj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1sahy do svobod a prosperity lid\u00ed si \u017e\u00e1daj\u00ed vy\u0161et\u0159en\u00ed, omluvu, p\u0159ijet\u00ed zodpov\u011bdnosti. Kdy\u017e u\u017e ne seppuku.<\/p>\n
Vlastn\u011b by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 to pominout, ale dobr\u00e1: je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bkolik slov k on\u00e9 dne\u0161n\u00ed medi\u00e1ln\u00ed show na\u0161\u00ed vl\u00e1dy, kter\u00e1 halasn\u011b p\u0159edstavila konglomer\u00e1t n\u011bkolika parametrick\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed na p\u0159\u00edjmov\u00e9 i v\u00fddajov\u00e9 str\u00e1nce st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu. Ve\u0159ejnost by asi \u010dekala, \u017ee dne\u0161n\u00ed vl\u00e1da u\u017e do voleb \u0161la se strategi\u00ed na ozdrav\u011bn\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed, kterou by hned prvn\u00ed den sv\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adov\u00e1n\u00ed za\u010dala realizovat. Nic takov\u00e9ho. Po 20 m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch n\u00e1hle probuzen\u00e1 vl\u00e1da nam\u00edsto syst\u00e9mov\u00fdch zm\u011bn uchystala n\u011bkolik \u0161krt\u016f a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed dan\u00ed, ov\u0161em s platnost\u00ed a\u017e od p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku. Loni nic, letos tak\u00e9 nic. Bombastick\u00e1 tiskovka m\u011bla ale asi vyvolat dojem, \u017ee vl\u00e1da si vyhrnula ruk\u00e1vy a za\u010dala n\u011bco d\u011blat. Za\u010dala. Marketingov\u00fdm divadlem.<\/p>\n
A jsme zp\u011bt u inflace. Jej\u00ed prap\u016fvodn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinu v podob\u011b zadlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1tu vl\u00e1da dosud ne\u0159e\u0161ila, letos \u0159e\u0161it nebude a pro roky 2024 a 2025 slibuje zm\u011bny, kter\u00e9 onu p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinu neodstra\u0148uj\u00ed. Tak\u017ee pokud bude inflace nad\u00e1le trochu klesat, bude to op\u011bt jen proto, \u017ee lid\u00e9 u\u017e nemaj\u00ed z \u010deho utr\u00e1cet.<\/p>\n
Ladislav Jakl, 11. 5. 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dubnov\u00fd pokles inflace analytiky p\u0159ekvapil. To je titulek z dne\u0161n\u00edho tisku. Ponechme stranou, zda je nam\u00edst\u011b pl\u00e1cat se do stehen za hodnotu 12.7 procenta, proto\u017ee i tak je to vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnota, ne\u017e byla za v\u0161ech p\u0159edchoz\u00edch vl\u00e1d za posledn\u00edch 105 let.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-publikovane-clanky"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13483","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13483"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13483\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13484,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13483\/revisions\/13484"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}