{"id":14110,"date":"2024-04-03T11:48:32","date_gmt":"2024-04-03T09:48:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/?p=14110"},"modified":"2024-04-03T11:48:32","modified_gmt":"2024-04-03T09:48:32","slug":"uneste-to-bremeno","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/?p=14110","title":{"rendered":"UNESTE TO B\u0158EMENO!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Na\u0161e Zem\u011bkoule \u2013 psst, nejmenovat, m\u00e1me j\u00ed \u0159\u00edkat prost\u011b \u201eplaneta\u201c, co\u017e m\u00e1 mystick\u00fd, kultovn\u00ed, a\u017e n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fd n\u00e1dech – je \u00fadajn\u011b v ohro\u017een\u00ed. Zachr\u00e1nit ji pr\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee jen zm\u011bna na\u0161eho my\u0161len\u00ed, chov\u00e1n\u00ed, zm\u011bna na\u0161eho hospoda\u0159en\u00ed, zm\u011bna struktury a objemu spot\u0159eby, zm\u011bna \u017eivotn\u00edho zp\u016fsobu, zm\u011bna politick\u00fdch a demokratick\u00fdch mechanism\u016f, ba dokonce zm\u011bna na\u0161\u00ed \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b k hor\u0161\u00edmu.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Co sv\u011bt sv\u011btem stoj\u00ed, plat\u00ed v rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed jedna obecn\u00e1 z\u00e1sada: kdo chce nechat v\u011bci sv\u00e9mu dosavadn\u00edmu b\u011bhu, nemus\u00ed tento sv\u016fj postoj nijak h\u00e1jit. Zato ten, kdo prosazuje zm\u011bnu, ba dokonce zm\u011bnu radik\u00e1ln\u00ed, ba dokonce zm\u011bnu dopadaj\u00edc\u00ed na ostatn\u00ed, ten nese d\u016fkazn\u00ed b\u0159emeno. Ten, kdo prosazuje pr\u00e1vn\u011b a exekutivn\u011b vymahateln\u00e9 zm\u011bny chov\u00e1n\u00ed spole\u010dnosti, ten mus\u00ed sn\u00e1\u0161et argumenty, ten mus\u00ed vyvracet beze zbytku v\u0161echny pochybnosti je\u0161t\u011b d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e za\u010dne vnucovat ostatn\u00edm prvn\u00ed nevratn\u00fd krok. To nen\u00ed jen z\u00e1kladn\u00ed podm\u00ednkou \u201ep\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e9 opatrnosti\u201c, to je principem zdrav\u00e9ho kritick\u00e9ho my\u0161len\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Tato z\u00e1sada ale byla glob\u00e1ln\u011b opu\u0161t\u011bna. Zdrav\u00fd rozum se nejsp\u00ed\u0161e odst\u011bhoval na \u00fapln\u011b jinou planetu. Stalo se tak zejm\u00e9na v souvislosti se skand\u00e1lem zvan\u00fdm \u201eClimategate\u201c p\u0159ed zhruba 15 lety. Tehdy se provalilo, \u017ee propaganda kolem tzv. glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed stoj\u00ed na zfal\u0161ovan\u00fdch datech. V onen moment soci\u00e1ln\u00ed in\u017een\u00fd\u0159i, kter\u00fdm v\u016fbec nejde o podneb\u00ed, ale o prosazen\u00ed konceptu \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, zcela zm\u011bnili taktiku. Opustili \u00fazem\u00ed sofistikovan\u00fdch argument\u016f, \u010d\u00edsel, graf\u016f, tabulek, model\u016f a vzorc\u016f, a v\u0161e vsadili na city, na emoce, na spole\u010denskou atmosf\u00e9ru, v n\u00ed\u017e se n\u011bkter\u00e9 v\u011bci u\u017e ne\u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed. N\u011bkolik dojemn\u00fdch fotek z\u00e1\u0161kola\u010dky Thunbergov\u00e9 z\u00edskalo v o\u010d\u00edch sv\u011btov\u00e9 ve\u0159ejnosti v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1hu ne\u017e tuny tvrd\u00fdch empirick\u00fdch dat.<\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to nov\u011b nastolen\u00e9 psych\u00f3ze se lid\u00e9 za\u010dali b\u00e1t diskutovat, kriticky myslet, vzn\u00e1\u0161et ot\u00e1zky a pochyby. V n\u011bkter\u00fdch zem\u00edch u\u017e je to dokonce trestn\u00e9. M\u00e1\u0161 jin\u00fd n\u00e1zor? Dolo\u017e jeho legitimitu! To je ale postaven\u00e9 na hlavu. D\u016fkazn\u00ed b\u0159emeno mus\u00ed le\u017eet na t\u011bch, kte\u0159\u00ed ostatn\u00edm vnucuj\u00ed zelenou agendu. To oni musej\u00ed argumentovat. A my se jich mus\u00edme pt\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka prvn\u00ed<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jak\u00e9 jsou celosv\u011btov\u00e9 trendy v\u00fdvoje podneb\u00ed? Jsou p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u00e9? Existuj\u00ed v\u016fbec n\u011bjak\u00e9 z\u0159eteln\u00e9 trendy? Z jak\u00fdch \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad vych\u00e1zej\u00ed? Jak star\u00e9 jsou s\u00edt\u011b stanic, z jejich\u017e m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed se vych\u00e1z\u00ed? Po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 se s efekty teplotn\u00edch ostrov\u016f? Jsou trendy mimo v\u0161\u00ed pochybnost o nejm\u00e9n\u011b jeden \u0159\u00e1d v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e jsou \u0161umy a odchylky kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch cykl\u016f? Jsou va\u0161e data o generace trvaj\u00edc\u00ed zm\u011bn\u011b podneb\u00ed nevyvratiteln\u00e1? Nejsou? Tak n\u00e1s nechte b\u00fdt. Jsou? Tak poj\u010fme d\u00e1l.<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka druh\u00e1 <\/strong>(na tu se nej\u010dast\u011bji zapom\u00edn\u00e1)<\/em><\/p>\n

Jestli\u017ee se otepluje, je to sp\u00ed\u0161e dob\u0159e, nebo sp\u00ed\u0161e \u0161patn\u011b?  M\u00e1te to spo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9? V\u00edte, \u017ee ro\u010dn\u011b na sv\u011bt\u011b zem\u0159e dvacetkr\u00e1t a\u017e pades\u00e1tkr\u00e1t lid\u00ed v\u00edce chladem ne\u017e horkem? St\u011bhuj\u00ed se v USA lid\u00e9 na sever, nebo na jih? Jezd\u00ed v Evrop\u011b des\u00edtky milion\u016f lid\u00ed v l\u00e9t\u011b do chladn\u00fdch, nebo do je\u0161t\u011b teplej\u0161\u00edch destinac\u00ed? V\u00edte, jak\u00fd p\u0159\u00ednos pro lidstvo by m\u011bla mo\u017enost p\u011bstov\u00e1n\u00ed zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch plodin v dne\u0161n\u00ed tund\u0159e Sibi\u0159e a Kanady? V\u00edte, \u017ee Sahara se st\u00e1le zmen\u0161uje a jej\u00ed okraje se zelenaj\u00ed d\u00edky zavla\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed a sr\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1m? V\u00edte, \u017ee v teplej\u0161\u00edch (a vlh\u010d\u00edch) historick\u00fdch obdob\u00edch, kter\u00fdm se \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 teplotn\u00ed optima, lidsk\u00e9 civilizace v\u017edy prosperovaly l\u00e9pe, zat\u00edmco chladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed obdob\u00ed s sebou p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ela v\u00e1lky, hladomory, p\u00e1dy \u0159\u00ed\u0161\u00ed a st\u011bhov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1rod\u016f? M\u00e1te p\u0159esn\u00e1 data v\u00fdnos\u016f a n\u00e1klad\u016f p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9ho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed? Nem\u00e1te? Tak n\u00e1s nechte b\u00fdt. M\u00e1te? Tak poj\u010fme d\u00e1l.<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka dvouap\u016flt\u00e1<\/strong><\/p>\n

(Ne\u017e opravdu p\u016fjdeme d\u00e1l, polo\u017eme si jednu meziot\u00e1zku. Pokud by alarmist\u00e9 dolo\u017eili jasn\u011b z\u00e1pornou bilanci p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9ho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, pak je zcela legitimn\u00ed se pt\u00e1t, zda m\u00e1 \u010dlov\u011bk j\u00edt cestou klimatick\u00e9 manipulace. Jestli\u017ee dolo\u017e\u00edme, \u017ee jist\u00fd stav podneb\u00ed je pro n\u00e1s v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e jin\u00fd, nepot\u0159ebujeme dokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee se podneb\u00ed m\u011bn\u00ed k hor\u0161\u00edmu. Prost\u011b bychom za\u010dali porou\u010det v\u011btru, de\u0161ti. Ale to zn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pragmaticky a m\u00e1lo ideologicky, \u017ee).<\/em><\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka t\u0159et\u00ed<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jestli\u017ee alarmist\u00e9 unesou d\u016fkazn\u00ed b\u0159emeno prvn\u00edch dvou ot\u00e1zek, \u010dek\u00e1 je ot\u00e1zka t\u0159et\u00ed: m\u016f\u017ee za zm\u011bnu podneb\u00ed \u010dlov\u011bk? Podneb\u00ed se m\u011bnilo v\u017edy a \u010dasto velmi rychle a dramaticky, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad na sklonku posledn\u00ed doby ledov\u00e9. Jste si jisti, \u017ee p\u016fvodcem (\u00fadajn\u00fdch) sou\u010dasn\u00fdch zm\u011bn je lidsk\u00e1 \u010dinnost? Na prvn\u00ed pohled je to ot\u00e1zka zbyte\u010dn\u00e1. Alarmist\u00e9 by teoreticky mohli odpov\u011bd\u011bt, \u017ee to je jedno. Posta\u010d\u00ed, kdy\u017e prok\u00e1\u017eou, \u017ee se podneb\u00ed m\u011bn\u00ed k hor\u0161\u00edmu a \u017ee ho \u010dlov\u011bk m\u016f\u017ee \u201enapravit\u201c.  Jen\u017ee to by sv\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed nikdy neprosadili. Pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed toti\u017e lidem vnutit pocit viny. Pouh\u00fd pocit, \u017ee lze n\u011bco zm\u011bnit k lep\u0161\u00edmu, soci\u00e1ln\u00edm in\u017een\u00fdr\u016fm nem\u016f\u017ee sta\u010dit. Teprve ten \u010dlov\u011bk, kter\u00e9mu vnut\u00edme \u0161patn\u00e9 sv\u011bdom\u00ed, je p\u0159ipraven p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161et ob\u011bti a sn\u00e1\u0161et \u00fatrapy. A nic jin\u00e9ho, ne\u017e \u00fatrapy pro \u010dlov\u011bka alarmist\u00e9 nechystaj\u00ed. M\u00e1te tedy p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u00e9 a nevyvratiteln\u00e9 d\u016fkazy o tom, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 podnebn\u00ed zm\u011bny jsou zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 \u010dlov\u011bkem? Nem\u00e1te? Tak n\u00e1s nechte b\u00fdt. M\u00e1te? Tak poj\u010fme d\u00e1l.<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka \u010dtvrt\u00e1<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tak unesli jste d\u016fkladn\u011b d\u016fkazn\u00ed b\u0159emeno ve v\u0161ech t\u0159ech p\u0159edchoz\u00edch ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch? \u010cek\u00e1 na v\u00e1s je\u0161t\u011b jedna. Kolik n\u00e1s to bude st\u00e1t? N\u00e1s a n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed generace? Jak\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti budou muset ob\u011btoval miliardy lid\u00ed, kdy\u017e boj s podneb\u00edm ur\u010d\u00ed za svou prioritu? Co to bude st\u00e1t spole\u010dnost ekonomicky, soci\u00e1ln\u011b i civiliza\u010dn\u011b? Jak\u00e9 budou dopady \u0159\u00edzn\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti na svobodu jednotlivce? M\u00e1te v\u0161echny tyto p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 a nep\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 n\u00e1klady vy\u010d\u00edslen\u00e9 a kvantifikovan\u00e9? A m\u00e1te spo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9 i potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdnosy operace? Pochopiteln\u011b si m\u016f\u017eete do v\u00fdnos\u016f zapo\u010d\u00edtat prokazateln\u00e9 odvr\u00e1cen\u00e9 \u0161kody. M\u00e1te hotovu tuhle bilanci? Je to trochu jin\u00e1 bilance ne\u017e u ot\u00e1zky druh\u00e9. Tam jsme porovn\u00e1vali n\u00e1klady a p\u0159\u00ednosy p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9ho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed. Zde porovn\u00e1v\u00e1me n\u00e1klady vynalo\u017een\u00e9 na boj s oteplov\u00e1n\u00edm s v\u00fdnosy cel\u00e9 gigantick\u00e9 operace. Je to f\u016fra \u010d\u00edsel, neposp\u00edch\u00e1me. U\u017e? M\u00e1te to? Prok\u00e1zali jste mimo v\u0161\u00ed pochybnost, \u017ee spole\u010densk\u00e9 investice do boje s podneb\u00edm jsou men\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e budouc\u00ed prosp\u011bch? Neprok\u00e1zali? Tak n\u00e1s nechte b\u00fdt. Prok\u00e1zali? Dobr\u00fd, ud\u011blejte prvn\u00ed krok. Co\u017ee? U\u017e jste jich ud\u011blali tis\u00edc? A my nucen\u011b tak\u00e9? A to jste se je\u0161t\u011b nepropadli hanbou?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Epilog<\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u0159ipadaj\u00ed v\u00e1m p\u0159edchoz\u00ed my\u0161lenky star\u00e9? Tak\u00e9 jsou. Formulovalo je mnoho lid\u00ed v mnoha p\u0159edchoz\u00edch letech. J\u00e1 osobn\u011b p\u0159ed 19 lety cestou z v\u011b\u017ee skokansk\u00e9ho m\u016fstku v Lahti do pivovaru v centru m\u011bsta. George Bushe Jr., Vladim\u00edra Putina a dal\u0161\u00ed hodnost\u00e1\u0159e jsem ponechal jejich mudrov\u00e1n\u00ed. Ale pr\u00e1v\u011b st\u00e1\u0159\u00ed t\u011bchto my\u0161lenek je stra\u0161n\u00e9. Stra\u0161n\u00e9 v tom, \u017ee nejsou pokl\u00e1d\u00e1ny ka\u017ed\u00fd den p\u0159ed ka\u017ed\u00fdm nov\u00fdm tragick\u00fdm opat\u0159en\u00edm, a tud\u00ed\u017e se s nimi nikdo d\u016fkladn\u011b nevyrovn\u00e1v\u00e1. Alarmist\u00e9 se tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee je neslu\u0161n\u00e9 se v n\u011b\u010dem takov\u00e9m vrtat a \u017ee je t\u0159eba rovnou konat. A jejich oponenti se koncentruj\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e na \u00fasil\u00ed odvr\u00e1cen\u00ed \u010di zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed. Jen\u017ee tyhle ot\u00e1zky p\u0159es sv\u00e9 st\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nikdy nebyly zodpov\u011bzeny dostate\u010dn\u011b. A nikdy nebudou zodpov\u011bzeny natolik betonov\u011b, aby to soci\u00e1ln\u00ed in\u017een\u00fdry oprav\u0148ovalo k jejich gigantick\u00e9mu glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu experimentu.<\/p>\n

Je na v\u00e1s tohle d\u016fkazn\u00ed b\u0159emeno p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9? Tak n\u00e1s nechte b\u00fdt.<\/p>\n

Ps\u00e1no pro \u010dasopis TO<\/p>\n

21. 3. 2024<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Na\u0161e Zem\u011bkoule \u2013 psst, nejmenovat, m\u00e1me j\u00ed \u0159\u00edkat prost\u011b \u201eplaneta\u201c, co\u017e m\u00e1 mystick\u00fd, kultovn\u00ed, a\u017e n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fd n\u00e1dech – je \u00fadajn\u011b v ohro\u017een\u00ed. Zachr\u00e1nit ji pr\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee jen zm\u011bna na\u0161eho my\u0161len\u00ed, chov\u00e1n\u00ed, zm\u011bna na\u0161eho hospoda\u0159en\u00ed, zm\u011bna struktury a objemu spot\u0159eby, zm\u011bna \u017eivotn\u00edho zp\u016fsobu, zm\u011bna politick\u00fdch a demokratick\u00fdch mechanism\u016f, ba dokonce zm\u011bna na\u0161\u00ed \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b k hor\u0161\u00edmu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14110","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-publikovane-clanky"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14110","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14110"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14110\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14111,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14110\/revisions\/14111"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14110"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14110"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14110"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}