{"id":14690,"date":"2025-05-15T16:03:15","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T14:03:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/?p=14690"},"modified":"2025-05-15T16:03:15","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T14:03:15","slug":"ukrajinsti-uprchlici-jako-tema-polskych-voleb-rozdil-s-cr-je-obrovsky-tvrdi-jakl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/?p=14690","title":{"rendered":"Ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed uprchl\u00edci jako t\u00e9ma polsk\u00fdch voleb. Rozd\u00edl s \u010cR je obrovsk\u00fd, tvrd\u00ed Jakl"},"content":{"rendered":"
Volebn\u00ed kampan\u00ed v Polsku p\u0159evl\u00e1d\u00e1 \u00fanava a nespokojenost z ukrajinsk\u00fdch uprchl\u00edk\u016f. Ladislav Jakl, \u0159editel Centra spole\u010densk\u00fdch studi\u00ed Institutu V\u00e1clava Klause, vysv\u011btlil pro ne\u010cT24 kontrast se situac\u00ed v \u010cR a \u0159ekl, co bude hr\u00e1t roli v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch u soused\u016f.<\/div>\n
 <\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Tento v\u00edkend se v Polsku budou konat prezidentsk\u00e9 volby. Hlavn\u00edmi favority jsou jeden z kandid\u00e1t\u016f vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed Ob\u010dansk\u00e9 koalice (OB), var\u0161avsk\u00fd starosta Rafa\u0142 Trzaskowski, kandid\u00e1t podporovan\u00fd stranou Pr\u00e1vo a spravedlnost, \u0161\u00e9f Institutu n\u00e1rodn\u00ed pam\u011bti Karol Nawrocki, a l\u00eddr krajn\u011b pravicov\u00e9 strany Konfederace S\u0142awomir Mentzen.<\/p>\n

Pane Jakle, jak\u00e9 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 faktory podle V\u00e1s rozhodnou o v\u00fdsledku prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb?<\/b><\/p>\n

Te\u010f t\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed volbami se situace kolem nich trochu zamotala. S\u00edly se vyrovn\u00e1vaj\u00ed a najednou nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, kdo z opozice vlastn\u011b postoup\u00ed proti kandid\u00e1tovi vl\u00e1dy do druh\u00e9ho kola. Asi rozhodnou detaily posledn\u00edch dn\u00ed, ale nep\u0159ece\u0148oval bych dopad zahrani\u010dn\u011b-politick\u00fdch t\u00e9mat na kampa\u0148. Rozhodn\u011b to, k\u00fdm se kter\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st polsk\u00e9ho elektor\u00e1tu bude c\u00edtit l\u00e9pe zastoupena ve sv\u00fdch b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch denn\u00edch z\u00e1jmech ka\u017edodenn\u00edho \u017eivota.<\/p>\n

Jak v\u00fdznamn\u00fd je vliv krajn\u011b pravicov\u00fdch kandid\u00e1t\u016f, jako jsou Slawomir Mentzen a Grzegorz Braun, na formulov\u00e1n\u00ed volebn\u00ed agendy?<\/b><\/p>\n

No, docela zaj\u00edmav\u00fd. Bez nich u\u017e to za\u010dalo vypadat na dost nudnou selanku. Jejich vzestup ale nen\u00ed d\u00edlem n\u011bjak\u00fdch jejich mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed \u010di kvalitou pr\u00e1ce volebn\u00edch \u0161t\u00e1b\u016f, ale re\u00e1ln\u00fdm posunem v polsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, kde se pravicov\u00e1 t\u00e9mata z okraje spole\u010densk\u00e9 diskuse za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed posouvat mezi ta dominantn\u00ed. Polsk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost se m\u011bn\u00ed, nebo alespo\u0148 jej\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st. Nen\u00ed spokojena a nec\u00edt\u00ed se dostate\u010dn\u011b reprezentov\u00e1na. A to vyn\u00e1\u0161\u00ed nahoru je\u0161t\u011b ned\u00e1vno docela ne\u010dekan\u00e1 jm\u00e9na.<\/p>\n

Charakteristick\u00fdm rysem t\u011bchto voleb je shoda kandid\u00e1t\u016f ohledn\u011b ukrajinsk\u00fdch uprchl\u00edk\u016f. Po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed empatie Pol\u00e1k\u016f po vypuknut\u00ed konfliktu v roce 2022 vyst\u0159\u00eddala \u00fanava a nespokojenost, kter\u00e9 kandid\u00e1ti aktivn\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed ve sv\u00fdch programech. To je v kontrastu se situac\u00ed v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice. Co si mysl\u00edte, \u017ee je p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou tohoto rozd\u00edlu?
\n<\/b>
\nPol\u00e1ci nikdy nebyli v\u016f\u010di Ukrajinc\u016fm empati\u010dt\u00ed. Chvilkov\u00fdm ples\u00e1n\u00edm nad Ukrajinci jen d\u00e1vali najevo sv\u016fj historick\u00fd odpor k Rus\u016fm. Rozd\u00edl je od \u010desk\u00e9ho vid\u011bn\u00ed obrovsk\u00fd, historick\u00fd a je d\u00e1n \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00fdmi polsk\u00fdmi z\u00e1jmy ve v\u00fdchodoevropsk\u00e9m teritoriu. S polskou tendenc\u00ed (kter\u00e1 pronik\u00e1 polskou spole\u010dnost\u00ed i politickou sc\u00e9nou) st\u00e1t se jist\u00fdm \u2013 z Bruselu, Berl\u00edna \u010di Washingtonu posv\u011bcen\u00fdm \u2013 patronem \u010di protektorem prostoru od Litvy po Krym m\u016f\u017eeme nesouhlasit, ale mus\u00edme ji br\u00e1t jako re\u00e1lnou a jako zako\u0159en\u011bnou v z\u00e1jmech Pol\u00e1k\u016f a v n\u00e1rodn\u00ed tradici.<\/p>\n

V\u00edte, moje maminka byla Polka, jej\u00ed maminka zase Ukrajinka. O tom slo\u017eit\u00e9m pot\u00fdk\u00e1n\u00ed leccos v\u00edm a nejsou to zrovna idylick\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhy. Pol\u00e1ci prostor na v\u00fdchod od sebe berou sou\u010dasn\u011b jako konkuren\u010dn\u00ed, sou\u010dasn\u011b jako historicky pod\u0159\u00edzen\u00fd. Tak lze rozum\u011bt polsk\u00e9 n\u011bkdy dosti sil\u00e1ck\u00e9 a p\u00f3z\u00e9rsk\u00e9 r\u00e9torice. Mysl\u00edm si o tom sv\u00e9m, ale je to postoj aspo\u0148 srozumiteln\u00fd a op\u0159en\u00fd o n\u011bjak\u00e9 jejich z\u00e1jmy a c\u00edle. \u010cesk\u00e1 politika v\u016f\u010di t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1sti Evropy ale z \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9ho \u010desk\u00e9ho z\u00e1jmu nevyv\u011br\u00e1, ta je jen odrazem ned\u016fstojn\u00e9ho odez\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed ze rt\u016f bruselsk\u00fdch a berl\u00ednsk\u00fdch \u00fast.<\/p>\n

Jak si vysv\u011btlujete prudk\u00fd pokles podpory ukrajinsk\u00fdch uprchl\u00edk\u016f v Polsku? Kter\u00e9 faktory podle V\u00e1s m\u011bly nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vliv na zm\u011bnu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed: ekonomick\u00e9 pot\u00ed\u017ee, p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00ed soci\u00e1ln\u00edch slu\u017eeb nebo politick\u00e1 r\u00e9torika?<\/b><\/p>\n

Prvotn\u00ed p\u00f3za se vy\u010derpala. Sou\u010dasn\u00fd stav je re\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Je to kombinace ekonomick\u00fdch dopad\u016f, kulturn\u011b historick\u00fdch resentiment\u016f a tak\u00e9 jist\u00e9 kulturn\u00ed nekompatibility. Pol\u0161t\u00ed katol\u00edci nikdy nem\u011bli sklony sponzorovat pravoslavn\u00e9 a trochu prost\u0161\u00ed obyvatele z v\u00fdchodu, a te\u010f je potk\u00e1vaj\u00ed na ka\u017ed\u00e9m rohu ka\u017ed\u00e9ho m\u011bste\u010dka. Virus slun\u00ed\u010dk\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho v\u00edta\u010dstv\u00ed v Polsku nikdy moc nep\u0159evl\u00e1dal. A te\u010f m\u00e1 ka\u017ed\u00fd Pol\u00e1k d\u016fsledky t\u00e9hle europolitiky denn\u011b p\u0159ed nosem.<\/p>\n

Jak mohou tyto volby ovlivnit vztahy mezi Var\u0161avou a Prahou?<\/b><\/p>\n

Ty vztahy byly na m\u016fj vkus v\u017edy m\u00e1lo intenzivn\u00ed a m\u00e1lo v\u0159el\u00e9. Bude hodn\u011b z\u00e1le\u017eet na tom, jestli \u010desk\u00e1 politick\u00e1 reprezentace v\u00fdsledky voleb p\u0159ijme, nebo jestli nad nimi bude ohrnovat nos.
\n<\/b><\/p>\n

Zdroj:<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Volebn\u00ed kampan\u00ed v Polsku p\u0159evl\u00e1d\u00e1 \u00fanava a nespokojenost z ukrajinsk\u00fdch uprchl\u00edk\u016f. Ladislav Jakl, \u0159editel Centra spole\u010densk\u00fdch studi\u00ed Institutu V\u00e1clava Klause, vysv\u011btlil pro ne\u010cT24 kontrast se situac\u00ed v \u010cR a \u0159ekl, co bude hr\u00e1t roli v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch u soused\u016f.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14690","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-rozhovory"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14690","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14690"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14690\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14691,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14690\/revisions\/14691"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14690"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14690"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ladislavjakl.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14690"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}